The Monty Hall Problem
Categories: Now You Know, Practical TipsPosted on Tuesday, 29 July 2008 14:32 by pfitz
Okay, so you’re on “Let’s Make A Deal” and you have three doors in front of you. Behind one is a CAR and behind the other two is a GOAT. You’re asked to pick a door and you’ll win what’s behind it. Then the host opens one of the other doors that has a goat behind it. He then gives you the option to swap and pick the other unopened door instead of the one you started with. Should you swap? Does it matter?
Watch the following video and see if you were right. You may be surprised.
Na
July 29th, 2008 at 18:37
I don’t have the math to support it, but I believe this came out of a horse.
I ran the simulation at a monty hall problem simulator and got 7 wins if I stayed and 7 if I switched. Removing one door from the problem reduces odds to 50:50. My choice does not alter the fact that the host will remove one losing door. Again, I’ve looked at the crazy math (and don’t understand it), but this seems like a common sense problem that some math geek overthought.